URL: http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/L/Joshua.M.Landis-1/syriablog/2005/04/news-round-up.htm

<h>SyriaComment.com 

   <h>Thoughts on Syrian politics, history and religion.

<h>Tuesday, April 19, 2005

<h>News Round Up

   <p>Up Date (April 21): A well informed Washington-based Syria-analyst
   wrote me the following about the "Assad has been Written Off" article
   quoted below.

     <p>About your column of today, I can tell you, privately, that the
     view of Syria expressed in the news article you cite is not widely
     shared among US analysts of the ME. It may reflect a political
     decision by the administration to marginalize Bashar, but the idea
     that he is viewed as living on borrowed time is not held at the
     level of working analysts.

   <h>US: ASSAD HAS BEEN WRITTEN OFF
   <p>Ma'ariv by Ben Caspit
   <p>(Thanks to Timur Goksel of AUB for sending this to me. Anyone who
   thinks the Syrian regime is on the verge of collapse hasn't been in
   Syria for some time. Interesting for the spin though. There is no
   organized opposition in Syria. Notions that President Asad is not in
   the loop seem silly to me. Certainly, he is not the only power in
   Syria, to which he alludes when he claims not to be a dictator, but
   that is far from suggesting that he is not the principal power.)

     <p>The US administration believes that the Alawite regime in Syria is
     on the verge of collapse, and that SyrianPresident Bashar Assad
     will not survive for long after the pullout of Syrian forces from
     Lebanon is completed-this was indicated by talks held by Prime
     Minister Ariel Sharon in Washington this week.
     <p>This assessment, which was originally reached by the CIA, is
     sharedby all leading government officials, ranging from President
     George Bushand Vice President Dick Cheney, to Secretary of State
     Condoleezza Rice and other officials.
     <p>The talks indicate that the Americans have written off President
     Assad; as far as they are concerned he does not exist, and they are
     already looking ahead and planning the day after the fall of the
     Syrian regime and the end of the Alawite minority rule in Damascus.
     <p>From the American viewpoint, Bashar Assad has in fact taken over
     the dubious position left open by Yasser Arafat, and is now
     disqualified andwritten off in precisely the manner that the
     Americans wrote off Arafat before him. The reasons for this are
     varied: the Syrian double game with regard to terrorism, the role
     that the Syrians are playing in Iraq, the Syrian conduct in Lebanon
     and the general Syrian functioning vis-a-vis the US administration.
     <p>In closed conversations, the Americans, including President Bush,
     say that Assad is a "peculiar fellow" who cannot be counted on,
     hopes cannot be pinned on him, and [the US] should wait until he
     disappears from the political scene. The administration believes
     that the Syrian people are ripe to begin a democratic process. "In
     Syria too, people are aware of what is happening around the world
     and in the region," say the Americans. On the other hand, officials
     in Washington express grave concern with regard to what is expected
     in Lebanon. It is feared that
     following the Syrian pullout and the beginning of the democratic
     process, Lebanon will undergo an internal collapse due to the high
     level of internal ethnic tension in the country.

   <p>"The EU adds to Syria's international woes: Brussels links Euro-med
   accord with damascus' politics in lebanon," writes Will Rasmussen of
   the Daily Star, April 08, 2005.
   <p>The EU finally broke cover this week in announcing it will not sign a
   billion-dollar trade pact with Syria until key European demands on
   Lebanon are met. The EU has insisted on a full withdrawal from Lebanon
   and parliamentary elections without interference from Syria.
   <p>Without the deal, the Syrian economy will lose an important lifeline,
   but more importantly, the EU's decision signals that the international
   isolation of the Syrian government will increase.
   <p>Syria had hoped that signing the agreement, which gives Damascus
   greater access to EU markets, would drive a wedge between Europe and
   America.
   <p>Demanding that Syria tighten its borders with Iraq and stop supporting
   anti-Israel groups such as Hizbullah, the U.S. has imposed a raft of
   sanctions on Damascus, which does not mean much economically, but puts
   a political squeeze on Syrian President Bashar Assad.
   <p>Europe, though, continued to pursue a different strategy of engagement
   with Syria, even initialing the trade pact last October - a month
   after Resolution 1559 was passed. The association agreement involves
   billions of dollars of aid to Damascus as well as the creation of an
   EU-Syrian free trade zone.
   <p>But finally, the EU seems to have lost patience, as The Daily Star
   first predicted last month.
   <p>Frank Hesske, EU ambassador to Syria, said this week: "I don't see how
   we could consider a signature earlier than ... fulfillment of these
   two conditions: full, verifiable withdrawal of troops and intelligence
   services and the issue of what we really see on the ground, free,
   transparent elections or not."
   <p>The deal is still in administrative limbo, awaiting translation of its
   1,500 pages into EU languages. It must be unanimously passed by all 25
   EU members and could be signed at the earliest by June. Syria has a
   positive trade balance with the EU of about $1 billion, largely due to
   its petroleum exports, but its economy is suffering from a negative
   growth rate and high unemployment.
   <p>When The Daily Star first queried European officials last month, they
   hinted that signing the agreement would be contingent on whether Syria
   withdraws its troops from Lebanon.
   <p>But the Europeans are expanding their scope and toughening their line
   against Damascus. Now, they're insisting on a second condition: that
   Syria respects free and transparent elections in Lebanon, which the
   Lebanese opposition is already accusing the Syrian-backed Karami
   government of delaying.
   <p>Last week, the EU enraged Damascus by inviting Syrian opposition
   leader Farid Ghadry, who recently met top U.S. State Department
   officials in Washington, to Brussels to argue his case for why the
   agreement should be delayed.
   <p>Ghadry, who heads the Reform Party of Syria, said the treaty shouldn't
   be ratified until Syria improves its human rights record and
   introduces democratic reforms.
   <p>According to Ghadry, the trade agreement is a key opportunity to
   pressure Damascus, which is the only country in the Euro-Mediterranean
   Partnership - which brings together 25 EU countries and their 12
   Mediterranean neighbors - not to sign an agreement.
   <p>"The regime of Assad is desperate to sign the agreement because it
   shows that it can isolate the Europeans from the Americans," Ghadry
   told The Daily Star.
   <p>Ghadry said: "Not only will it give Syria an economic boost that we
   think will again only benefit the elite but it will also give the
   regime a political boost, something the Reform Party of Syria does not
   want at this time.
   <p>"The EU trade with Syria represents approximately 40 percent of
   Syria's GDP, so it's very important for them."
   <p>Ghadry urged the EU to leverage the trade agreement not just to free
   Lebanon from Assad's grip but to improve its human rights record.
   <p>"The only reform possible is the lifting of the emergency laws,
   release of all prisoners, changing the Constitution to accept all
   political parties and dismantling the intelligence services," said
   Ghadry.
   <p>"If these are done, then we can start a meaningful dialogue to
   transition the country into a full-fledged democracy."
   <p>Ghadry's demands are further than the EU has signaled it is willing to
   push. It doesn't seem likely, though, that the agreement will be
   signed before June, when the EU presidency changes hands and new
   political priorities could come into play.
   <p>Until then, Syria's pariah status will continue, unless, of course, it
   shows a willingness to cooperate fully in Lebanon.

     <h>Daily Press Briefing
     <h>Tom Casey, Director, Office of Press Relations
     <h>Washington, DC
     <h>April 15, 2005
     <p>QUESTION: Asharq al-Awsat newspaper said today that President Bush
     will not
     deal with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the U.S. is not
     pleased at
     all from the Syria's policies. How do you characterize the
     relations between
     the U.S. and Syria?
     <p>MR. CASEY: Well, I think our relations with Syria right now are
     very much
     focused on ensuring that Syria complies with all the terms and
     obligations
     of Resolution 1559. Beyond that, we have made clear, very clear,
     some of our
     other concerns about Syria, including its support for terrorism,
     including
     its housing of those involved or associated with terrorist groups
     in
     Damascus, including our concerns about what Syria is doing or, more
     importantly, isn't doing to shut off the flow of potential
     insurgents across
     the border with Iraq.
     <p>So, obviously, we have many, many concerns with Syria right now.
     The Syrians
     certainly know what they are. We've spoken to them about it on a
     regular
     basis and we're certainly looking for action not only on 1559 but
     on all
     those other issues.

      

<h>22 Comments:

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>Hey joshua
          <p>i have probably checked ur site 60 times in last 10-12 days cuz
          was very curious to see what u found in ur trips to lebanon,
          suwaida and qamishli....hope u got a few things to say about ur
          trip
          <p>cheers
          <p>Syrian in canada

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>There is no organized opposition thanks to eradication policy
          against syrian political parties.
          <p>We can also say that there is no Baath party because it's not
          more a Mafia united in the name of economic privilege.
          <p>The true power in Syria is the security apparatus dominated by
          allawi clans linked to the Assad Family.
          <p>Because of the weakness of this regime i'm pessimistic about
          any radical reform in Syria led by the dictator Assad junior.

           

   <h>Ghassan said...
          <p>Joshua,
          <p>I was looking forward to read your posting following your
          travel in Syria. I was disappointed when you posted news
          article that I have read days ago! I really like to hear what
          the PEOPLE IN SYRIA (government, politicians, economists and
          ordinary people) are thinking!
          <p>I agree with âAnonymous At 7:29 PMâ that due to the eradication
          and threat policy against Syrian politicians there is no
          organized opposition. Don't be deceived that there is no
          opposition. It smells like what happened to Saddam when he
          surrounded himself with âyes sirâ men who lied to him just to
          either get rewarded with money and power or to be protected
          from his oppression. Assad, Jr. is surrounded by the same type
          men who are lying to him by telling him âevery Syrian and
          Lebanese loves you!â It is typical of dictators to have that
          kind of people around them to make them feel good about
          themselves! My advice to Assad, Jr. is to do his best to allow
          the Syrians to express themselves freely. One more analogy, the
          Japanese car makers in the late 1970s allowed their employees
          to provide opinions and suggestions about how to design and
          build cars. In few years, they improved the quality of their
          cars and lowered its cost which led them to control the US auto
          market! The big three companies in Detroit refused to change
          and their share of the US auto market plummeted! Look around
          you, read history and learn from it Dr. Assad before YOU become
          history!

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>Josh,did you read my email of 6 april with 2 attachments,now
          once i recive ur acknowledgment i have the 3ed attach. to
          complete the the ring ,thus the expected metmorphises drift to
          save the present seen on a new politecal party look that may
          prolong the dynasty under an accepted nationalstic ideology,ur
          half way there,but ur missing the linck.
          

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>I dont think the syrians want to get rid of one dictator for
          another puppet. If Ghadry thinks hes the change syria needs,
          hes got bigger problems. He needs to shutup and continue living
          his suburban life in the USA. If he doesnt experience the
          suffering, then he has no legitimate claim to removing it.

           

   <h>Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...
          <p>The French-US alliance on Lebanon is a very powerful one,
          americans bringing their influence and new Europe on the
          balance and France bringing old Europe.
          <p>This creates a transantlantic convergence that can be compared
          to a Bulldozer.
          <p>Even with chinese and russian support(which Syria does not
          have) Bashar would find it hard to resist international
          pressure.

           

   <h>Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...
          <p>I don't think that Syria's regime could be overthrown on the
          short term, there is no opposition to organize a coup and a
          revolution.
          <p>The Syrian Lebanese fronteer is bound to remain open,
          especially if Syria wants to keep some influence in Lebanon. If
          the border is closed there will be an economical catastrophe on
          the two sides and nobody can affords this.
          <p>A more important middle-term threat to Bashar would be a
          liberal Lebanese government. Ideas tends to circulate easily
          between the two countries because of their deep relations. Most
          syrian are familiar with lebanese newspapers and reforms in
          Lebanon are likely to amplify the demand for reforms in Syria.
          <p>If a syrian opposition reorganize on lebanese soil, this could
          prove a real threat to Syria. The lebanese learned the
          palestinian lesson and are unlikely to allow a foreign
          opposition on their soil but you never know.

           

   <h>kingcrane said...
          <p>The new Lebanese government, a Franco-Saudi concoction that is
          agreed upon by Syrian authorities, tells you that Syria is
          doing what it does best: work behind the scenes in order to
          survive. The next Lebanese elections (if they are held) will be
          "clean" and Assad will be off the hook. As to the US of A, they
          have conceded the ex-French-Protectorates to France, once and
          for all.
          <p>PS: "Syrian Opposition" and "Ghadry's reform Party: what a
          joke, a-la-Chalabi.

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>This Ghadry is nothing but a Zionist piece of garbage. It is
          easy for any traitor to plot against his country especially at
          a time of crisis. The Syrian regime most likely will become a
          hostage to France and the US, and will try to accommodate them
          for a while to insure its own safety. But it must be said that
          the regime still have many cards to play. It may bleed but it
          is not down and out. The President will take steps reform and
          become more democratic than most states in the region and he
          may have to take a lot of eternal pain to achieve that. When
          the Americans wont be satisfied as expected, then the Syrians
          can and will unleash hill on the head of the Americans in Iraq
          and may even open the Golan front which can attract plenty of
          Arab and Moslem help.

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>I agree with Anonymous@12.15.
          <p>The daughter of Cheney said that the USA dont ignore that
          Ghadry has no support in Syria and from Syrians outside Syria.
          <p>The regime know that the overwelming majority of the syrian
          people hate him,that's why the syrian regime is not able to
          permit any freedom.

           

   <h>Mechul said...
          <p>Note that Hizbullah accepted the role played by France in
          Lebanon, as reflected in Nasrallah's open letter (published in
          Le Figaro and al-Safir). Apparently, Nasrallah strives to
          dissociate the French from the Americans, because he very
          rightly believes that it will be easier to cut deals with
          Paris.
         <p>He understands that a common American-French-Saudi front in
          Lebanon would be hard to confront, and thus in the interview
          clearly indicated that he is currently willing to do business
          with the French but not with the Americans.

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>it is no secret that syria helped one way oor another in the
          fight against terrorism by giving names and info and even
          people to the united states. it is true that syria is not
          controlling the iraq border as tight as it should, but hey, is
          the americans on the other side 100% securing it ??? they are
          not even securing the US -Mexico borders...
          <p>in my opinion, the US should had built on the young president
          Assad to modernize and bring Syria to their side, instead if
          trying toppling the Syrian regime. it will be a grave mistake
          to change the regime in Syria.it will be more benefitial and
          less dramatic to work with Dr. Bashar Assad-in person not the
          old guard-. if someone is saying that the Syrians are trying to
          have it both ways, well, can you explain why the US wants Syria
          to implement the UN resolutions 1559 regarding Lebanon, and not
          asking Israel to implement the resolutions regarding giving
          back the Golan heights back to Syria?? no real explanations
          here i guess. and when the Israelis say that the high view from
          the Golan averlooking northern Israel is safety issue, well
          that was in the past days, now someone in alaska can see what
          is happening in a square meter any place in the world, thanx to
          the new technologies, so what's the international saying about
          Israel and the Golan Heights??and is Bush going to say about
          that???
          <p>thank you all for your inputs.

           

   <h>Haidar said...
          <p>Equitor, your view of the situation is slightly skewed.
          Although i agree with most of what you said, your equating the
          Palestinian and Syrian opposition to each other is stupid. The
          Syrian opposition wouldn't be trying to start a state within a
          state in Lebanon as the Palis did. Don't kid yourself, Syrians
          already have a much larger country than the Lebanese, they
          don't need a state in Lebanon. Not to mention Lebanon's
          population density is off the charts and the southern Lebanese
          are having more children every day.

           

   <h>anon mother said...
          <p>Ghassan asked for input on how the ordinary people in Syria are
          thinking, what about dreaming? I had such a vivid dream and
          felt I had to tell it ..I could have told my husband but I dont
          want to upset him .. it would be like two drowning people
          holding on to each other...
          <p>Here is the dream .. I was in a Khaleej country standing
          outside an internet cafe, I was looking at a newspaper picture
          ..it was of young and older men all dead but with no sign of
          violence on them neatly placed in stacks as though getting
          ready to be crated up ready to be sent on an airplane. I was
          looking at it crying and searching for the faces of my sons,
          there were Syrian people behind me saying "how could they show
          this in a newspaper their mothers will be so upset" as though
          this was common knowledge but not usually seen. .. I,m crying
          as I write this.. then in my dream I look into the internet
          cafe and see little fat Khaleeji kids playing on the computers
          and a tv program is advising them on how to lose weight ,
          oblivious to these Syrians outside looking at the newspaper.
          <p>I have three sons abroad that I,ve not seen for years, everyone
          I know has at least one of their children over there( choose
          whatever country you want) we live in a dream for the day when
          they,ll come home to us , but the fact is they will be chewed
          up and spat out by these places . We are raising our beautiful
          Syrian children to be so much chattle for the use of other
          countries while they should be here, we all want them home I
          want this beautiful; country to be the envy of those countries
          where our boys are and we wouldn,t have to say goodbye anymore
          the tears of all our mothers and fathers are too precious.
          salam to everyone

           

   <h>annie said...
          <h>Things are moving aren't they ?
         <p> From the Syrian News Wire
          <p>(saroujah.blogspot.com)
          <h>Coup leader returns to Syria
          <p>Colonel Jasem Elwan, the man who led the 1963 coup against the
          newly established Ba'ath government, has returned to Syria.
          <p>The Ba'ath party took power after a troublesome and short-lived
          union with Jamal Abdel Nasser's Egypt. They reasserted Syria's
          independence and took control of Syria away from Cairo.
          <p>But Elwan was one of the Syrian officers still loyal to Nasser.
          Unhappy with the rejection of Egyptian rule, he attempted to
          overthrow the Damascus government.
          <p>He failed, and fled to Egypt. He was sentenced to death in
          absentia.
          <p>But moderate young leader Bashar Al-Assad is trying to rewrite
          his father's history by encouraging the return of political
          refugees. Elwan was issued with a Syrian passport, and returned
          home. He was met at Damascus Airport by Human Rights Lawyer and
          opposition activist Hassan Abdel-Azim.
          <p>Ammar recently wrote that all exiles have a duty to return and
          reshape Syria, and play an active part in the politics of their
          country.
          <p>Abdel-Azim is now calling for all political prisoners to be
          released. Last month the Syrian Ambassador to the US said that
          by the summer Syria's prisons would not house a single
          political prisoner. At the same time the President released 312
          Kurdish political detainees. Estimates put the number of
          political prisoners at between zero and six hundred.
          <p>from the Syrian news wire:

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>Yes well every country experiences a migration of minds. Its a
          shame however that your sons will probably go work in the gulf
          as waiters or salespeople on the floor. Now thats a waste of a
          mind that could have been used to benefit all the arab states.
          Engineer, business person, economist, mathematician? Simply a
          salesman in the gulf. What a pity...

           

   <h>Vox Populi - Agent Provocateur said...
          <p>Haidar,
          <p>my previous post is ambiguous I did not express myself
          properly. It is certain that there will not be a PLO-style
          syrian opposition in Lebanon, but there could be a democratic
          opposition enjoying freedom of expression in Lebanon.
          <p>Unlike the palestinian example, the threat would not come from
          the Syrian opposition itself but rather from the Syrian
          government reaction to it. I doubt that Bashar will appreciate
          to see a Syrian opposition a few kilometers away from Damascus.
          <p>I don't think anyone in Lebanon wants to have tensions with the
          syrian government. So I doubt that the syrian opposition will
          be allowed to operate from Lebanon.

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>Your Washington friend said:"About your column of today, I can
          tell you, privately, that the view of Syria expressed in the
          news article you cite is not widely shared among US analysts of
          the ME."
          <p>I, for one, am very heartened to hear that. These guys, the
          mainstream herd of ME analysts and CIA types, have been soooo
          right on so many things. (har har)
          <p>It is a miracle that Bush is able to do anything, with the
          State dept. the CIA, etc.. trying to sabotage him

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>We in Lebanon are very disappointed that the EU did not include
          a conditional clause concerning human rights and the fate of
          the Lebanese detainees in syria in particular, for the
          conclusion of the syrian EU agreement. The EU constitution
          blabs endlessly about human rights and yet, when it comes to
          practice, it is conveniently oblivious to the atrocities
          committed by many middle eastern regimes, assad's being on top
          of the list. Sadly, this matter often finds little support
          about the people of the middle east themselves, either out of
          ignorance or out of plain indifference to a phenomenon they
          have come to view as collateral damage to the regimes in power.
          I would like to turn the attention of syrian citizens to the
          plight of teh lEbanese mothers and spouses whose sons have been
          the victim of forced disappearance by the assad regime for the
          last 25 years or so. The lucky ones get to see their sons once
          in a blue moon after significant bribes are paid to various
          syrian officers. Others cannot even find out if their sons are
          still alive. Of course we are aware that syrian citizens
          themselves are also victimized by the assad regime but we
          rarely hear a voice of support or concern..

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          <p>Dear Syrian in Canada,
          <p>It is "your" on "ur".
          <p>It is "because" not "cuz".
          <p>It is "you" not "u".
          <p>It is "I" not "i".
          <p>Another Syrian in Canada

           

   <h>The only real syrian in Canada said...
          <p>There's one syrian in Canada and it's me. U r all traitors

           

   <h>Anonymous said...
          
          <p>Yeah, they really stopped him from telling the truth about WMDs
          in iraq and Iraqi ties 911, now didnt' they ?

           

   